Summary

The current forecast date is 14 March.

The forecasting model is an unweighted ensemble of three individual models:

  1. unweighted time series ensemble model (autoregressive ARIMA, ETS, TBATS and naive models)
  2. regression + 7-day-lagged cases (cases mapped from UTLA to Trust using Trust-UTLA mapping in covid19.nhs.data)
  3. convolution from cases to admissions (scaled; cases mapped to Trusts as above)

All models are trained on the last 6 weeks of data (from 31 January) and forecasts are made for the following 14 days.

Current forecast

By recent observed admissions

By forecast admissions

Past forecasts